10-22-14 was down $2.08. It has been quite a while since we have seen a one-day drop like that. The model projects that the CME Index component on the kill for 10-22-14 will drop between -1.35 and -1.65.

The kill so far this week is coming in just about the same as last year. I am of the opinion that producer are pulling hogs forward wanting to get them marketed before there is additional price erosion. If this is the case, we should see the 6-day moving average carcass weight continue to drop relative to last year. It has already gone from being over by 10.79# on 7-30-14 to being up just 4.99# yesterday.

There is the possibility that this "Pulling Hog Forward" could result in tight supplies a bit later.

I think producers have sufficient numbers of lighter weight hogs to keep that from happening, but it is a possibility that must be considered.

I'm still short a couple of ZZZs and have sold several Z/G spreads and own a couple of 90/92 bear put spreads all of which are working all right so far.

Best wishes,

dhm