1/17/18 was up +0.39 to 73.74. The GGGs are now trading discount to the component by -0.64. Seasonally we have passed the time of the year when hog prices tend to bottom-out and historically we can expect a gentle price increase until Independence Day. There will be plenty of jumps and giggles between now and then and that is what makes life interesting. Because we seem to be in an up-trending market I have chosen to be long the GGGs. So far I am not being punished for my decision. My hog pricing model is turning out to be a dandy trading tool again this month.
The 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 214.52# today. That is +1.32# year over year. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 214.56#. Packer hog came in 1.89# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Packer hogs gained 1/3# on the day and non-packer hogs lost about 1/4#. I believe packers have a fairly good idea about what is happening in the hog market - - - at least far better than I. The fact that packers are finishing hogs to a heavier weight suggests to me that they are wanting to process heavier hogs and they feel they can profitably market the increased volume of pork that they will get from the heavier hogs.
The calendar spreads have kept me quite busy this morning shuffling back and forth from the bank to make deposits as some of the J/K and Q/V spreads meet my profit objective.