Cash was strong yesterday, quoted up $1.50 to $2.00. Feb and Apr hogs are hovering near the highs reached in early and again in late November and again in late December. The summer and fall/winter contracts are posting fresh contract highs. My guess/bet is that the front end of hogs will pull back into a seasonal low before attempting to take out the massive resistance above the market. The obvious driver would be huge demand for U.S. pork from both the domestic user and the export customer. Fundamentally, I worry about record large production, consistent downward revisions in slaughter and heavy weights hogs. It appears, however, that the power of demand will override all of these supply side worries. The market seems totally complacent in regards to NAFTA concerns. Once again, yesterday, lean hog put volume of trade was twice that of calls. Perhaps all NAFTA worries are being placed into the options market. A massive snow storm is battering the eastern seaboard. Schools in NY and Boston are closed today and likely will be closed tomorrow. Im guessing this will hurt consumption of meat. Were buying puts on a higher trade today and selling futures. Given weakness into the middle part of January, well turn bullish.
Happy New Year DH! I made it back from Colo and all I received was Strep and now I am selling hogs in a big way hoping they don't freeze to death! As I have often said, trading hogs is a difficult way to make money!!
Good luck to all in this new year!