MURICO.com Forum

The CME component on the kill for - - -

10/21/14 dropped -1.41 to 103.46. With the strength shown by the ZZZs this morning, the "Gap" has been cut to 13.78. Still quite a "Gap" but it just feels more reasonable.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up a sliver to 214.48# and it was almost entirely packer hogs that brought about the up-tic. The six-day moving average carcass weight is only 4.81# heavier than one-year ago. I think producers are shipping hogs at a fast clip and have pulled some of their heavies forward. The model projects that as many as 300K hogs have been pulled forward.

That does not mean that there is an impending tight supply of hogs on the way.

Producers may have looked over their pens and say good numbers and have decided to ship quickly since the price is in a near free-fall. If I were raising hogs, I would be shipping as fast as I could.

Scalping ZZZs has been good to me today. I have also sold a couple more Z/G spreads. I continue to think we will see that spread close below ZERO. It almost always does.

Best wishes,

dhm