MURICO.com Forum

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

12/19/17 WAS down -0.27 to 62.25. The GGGs are trading premium to the component by +5.72. Packers often bump the index up more than that as the kill slacks off after the holiday surge of hogs being marketed.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was a bit soft again this morning at 213.90#. That is +2.91# year over year. Index hogs were even lighter at 213.76#. I continue to suspect that the year over year indicates a tendency to finish hogs to a heavier weight and is NOT hinting that producers are behind in their shipments. In fact I am beginning to suspect that the declining carcass weights indicate that producers are now fairly current in their shipments and the stage may be set for a nice rally as we head toward cash settlement for the GGGs. The amount of time until we get to cash settlement is so great that it will likely be a very bumpy ride getting there and the quarterly H&P report coming out Friday has all the markings of being a market mover.

The calendar spreads have been very quiet for me the past two days.

Best wishes,

dhm