12/12/17 was down -0.09 to 64.82. That is not quite as weak as the model projected. the ZZZs are now trading discount to the component by -1.00. If the ZZZs dip a little, I think I will buy a couple to take to cash settlement.

Why? because I generally take a few to cash settlement and it would be a waste of effort if I didn't follow the guidance of the model and the model seems to be showing that the packers are holding their bids firm enough to make going to cash settlement fairly safe.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 214.88#. That is +3.25# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 214.57#. Packer hogs are heavier than non-packer hogs by +1.19#. I think packers are wanting to kill heavier hogs and that accounts to a portion of the year/year gain. The heavy weekend kill may have helped get producers current in their shipments.

Best wishes,

dhm