MURICO.com Forum

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

12/8/17 was down -0.40 to 65.04. That is more than the model projected. I need to point out that some negotiated formula hogs showed up in the 201 report today and that will have a modest impact on the component that is not reflected in the model's calculation. If they keep coming in, I am going to have to re-build the model to accommodate them. A this point they are modest in number and will have minimal impact on the component calculation.

A bunch of heavies were killed Friday and Saturday. The six-day moving average carcass weight jumped to 215.63#. That is plus 3.12# year over year. I had been thinking that some back-up was taking place and now we are seeing it reflected in the carcass weights. Index hogs were also heavier at 215.30#. The Friday/Saturday kill was large but probably not large enough to begin bringing down the carcass weights. Packer hogs may also be backed up a little. They are +1.44# heavier than non-packer hogs.

I took profits on a long ZZZ pig this morning. I may put it back on if there is a dip or I may sell more if there is much of a rally.

Best wishes,

dhm