11/29/17 was UP 0.20 to 63.09. The ZZZs are trading premium to the index by 1.81. That, my friends, is not very much with eleven more days of data to come in ahead of cash settlement. This means that traders will be (or should be if they not) watching the movement in the index very carefully for the next two weeks. index component has been up two of the last three days. This may be an indication that the down-trend he has now become an up-trend. Last year it was a powerful up-trend. I doubt that it will be that powerful this year.

The reason I say that is because it appears last year producers pulled hogs forward to a significant degree during October and early November. It is possible that just the opposite has happened this year except it is packers may have slowed down the chain speed a little and backed hogs up a bit. I say that because the 6-day moving average weight was up today to 214.49# and that is +2.50# year/year. Index hogs were also heavier at 214.63#.

Still short some Dec calls that are covered with long futures. So far the calls are providing plenty of protection to the futures but a sharp sell-off could change that.

Best wishes,

dhm