11/2/17 was down -0.25 to 69.16. The ZZZs are now trading discount to the component by -3.86. Traders are convinced that packers are going to be cutting back on what they will pay for hogs. This is the second day in a row that the component has been down. This may be ushering in a down-trend now. The component was a bit weaker than the model projected. I tried to get short on the opening bounce this morning but missed. It would have been a good scalp.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 212.09#. That is +0.66# yr/yr. Hogs may be finishing rapidly now and producers are not quite as current as they were. Index hogs were also heavier at 211.61#. Packer hogs are +1.51# heavier than non-packer hogs. I think packers are wanting heavier hogs now.

Calendar spreads are not quite as active today. Maybe they will pick up next week with the Goldman Roll. I tried to get short the
ZZZs this morning on the opening surged but missed.

In an hour and a half the week1 T-Bond options expire. I'm going to be happy to get rid of this load.

Best wishes,

dhm