10/25/17 was up +$0.62 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will creep up between +0.60 and +0.90. This up trend just keeps going and going and going. Yesterday packers only purchases 67.8% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs. That is the second day in a row of low total hog purchases. Low total purchases may have sent them into the market trying to buy up Index hogs. They did better on their purchases of index hogs getting 93.7% of the moving average daily purchases.

Since 9/1/17 the kill has been quite close to that projected from the last H&P report. It just might be, though, that hogs have been pulled forward mildly to get the kill we have seen lately. I say that because the 6-day moving average carcass weights are running -0.52# year over year AND carcass weights have not made their usual compensatory growth surge following the hot-summer slow-growth period.

The fact remains, though, that the last H&P report projected that the hogs coming to market over the next few week will be something like +3.9% greater than one-year ago. That amounts to a fair sized pile of pork for packers to peddle. So far they are going a splendid job getting it sold. I'm suspecting that the low prices have during the summer enabled them to book sizeable export orders but I don't know that for sure. Thus I am left jumping at Halloween shadows in the dark trying to figure out what is going on in the hog market. I have chosen to go with the trend and be a tiny bit long the ZZZs to accompany the boat load of calendar spreads that I am working.

Best wishes,

dhm