projection of where the kill should be based on the last H&P report and compare that to the actual kill. My figures are showing that the kill since 9/1/17 has been 19.529 million hogs. From the H&P report the model projects that it should have been 19.636 million for short-fall of about 100K or so. Last year during this time period the kill was 18.899 million so the kill this year is up 3.33% rather than the +3.90% implied by the H&P report. That is reasonably close but it does suggest that the supply of hogs may be slightly less than the report.

When you add to that the fact that the 6-day moving average carcass weight is about 0.54# lighter than last year meaning hogs may be being pulled forward a little, there is not a hint that the inventory of hogs in producers' barns is going to surprise us with a rush of hogs coming to market greater than projected by the USDA in their last report.

Actually these numbers suggest that we got a very good report.

It is going to take continued strong demand to carry off all this pork and at this point in time we seem to be getting it based on the fact that packers are keeping their bids firm.

I hope this helps.

Best wishes

dhm