for me------when I feel so good or super confident about something-----it usually kicks me in the rear and then rubs my face in the mud. With cash showing the strength it is, Dec hogs are 1.12 away from that addictive $10 move, so I have to believe it's a done deal, waiting to happen. Probably in that 30 day swing cycle time frame.

The contract low @ 55.77 was put in on Aug 29th and then proceeded to trade sideways in the addictive $5 range for 30 days. On day 31, Aug 29th the Launch had Lift Off with the break out reversal point @ 60.75 to set up what I believe to be another 30 day swing cycle to extend the bottom 30 day $5 range between 55.77-60.75 to the next addictive $5 range-----60.75 up to 65.75 between Oct 25th-Oct 30th.

We might get perfection and hit 65.75 exactly on Oct 28th or 30th. All markets usually stay away from perfection because that makes it too easy to figure out. Either Undershoot or Overkill is the preferred way. To ramp up the confusion, most of the time, the market will ramp up the confusion with directional OVERKILL. There are times that a $1 undershoot happens, so a $4 move or extension for the $9 target is a qualifier. The Overkill in an up market will turn everyone Bullish to set up the next drop------just as we saw 30 days of bottom Overkill to turn everyone Bearish. The hog market is so good at setting up the psych trade frequently throughout the year, for many reasons. That is why the $5 range and the $5 extensions are such an Addictive Force.

Down at the bottom in mid Sept, I knew the $5 sideways trade was in place but how long it would trade sideways, was up to the market to decide. I also knew that at some point the range would either break to the upside or break to the downside for another $5 Addiction move-----that's just what the hog market does 80% of the time. At that time the thoughts of a $5 extension above 60.75 was as foolish of a thought that can be thought up and the bear train was loaded to the rafters and long waiting lines at the station-------the needed formula for a Hallucination to become Reality was there------and believe me, my Hallucinations were rampant before the setup was half way in place. By the time the Launch was prepared for Lift Off, I was even thinking my $10 rally Hallucinations were one of the most foolish thoughts that had ever come out of my brain dead mind. The finale most important piece was in place(getting long is stupid, be careful or you will hurt yourself) for the "All Systems Go" LAUNCH

Now if I had thrown caution to the wind and threw on 10 contracts of long Dec @ 57.00 because I had everything in place for a Hallucination to become a Reality Rally to 65.00 and felt that good about it that I would add more longs if it retested 56.00. Well, I would probably be in a painful situation and the market would probably be trading 51.00-52.00 area 4-5 dollars against me. That's my solid track record every time I'm so sure of something, that I ignore my 1.00 risk comfort zone. with fishing its 40-50 cents. Whenever I ignore my risk comfort zone-----I pay a foolishly painful price.