10/10/17 WAS UP $0.59 AND THE MODEL projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.45 and +0.75. The VVVs are trading premium to the component by +2.63. The model calculates that the component will need to rise by 46 cents per day to close that "Gap". It has averaged being up 61 cents per day for the last 6-days. If we see the VVVs dip today, I will be getting long. I carried a few long VVVs over-night.

With their higher bids yesterday packers purchased 90.8% ofthe moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 91.7% of index hogs. The weakness in the six-day moving average carcass weight may be telling us that producers have caught up with their shipments and they are quite current now. And packers seem to have quite an appetite for hogs. It may be the new plants coming on line has added another layer of demand. The kill this week is really coming in powerfully strong - plus 19.18% so far!!

It looks like the seasonal low may be in for the Index. We may have to wait a while to get the low for this Hog Cycle. I don't think it has been posted yet and demand seems to be strong enough to carry-off all the pork that packers will be producing this fall.

Best wishes,

dhm