9/29/17 kill was down -0.33 to 54.16. The strength in the futures has the VVVs trading premium to the component by +3.39 and the ZZZs are +8.09. Clearly "The Market" is saying that the component hit the "Trough" for this Hog Cycle last week and now we go up! The component has now been down for 33-days consecutively with an average down day of 88.9 cents. That is a mighty bitter pill for producers.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 211.14# with both packer and non-packer hogs being a bit heavier. That is +0.74# yr.yr. Index hogs were also heavier at 210.08#. Packers killed a rather high percentage of their hogs Friday and packer hogs are now +0.77# heavier than non-packer hogs.

I surely don't know where the price of hogs is headed but I do know that many, many calendar spreads have been taken off my boat this morning and the short VVVs and ZZZs are causing me some grief.

Best wishes,

dhm

"In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!" Long Bear