let's assume, we keep killing the same amount of hogs for the next two weeks, with no signs of let up------what would you expect the lean index to do, stabilize, go up, or go down. Of course demand can say this is cheap enough and start buying their future needs but we have no way of knowing that will happen, so lets assume demand does not change and the packers decide to be nice(I'll believe that when I see it) and they don't cut their bids and go with fill the freezers at this 55-57 price area.

How long does it take to fill the freezers before the packers have no where to go with the meat. I'm trying to come to grips with that mountain of pork, new record production keeps showing up and the producers are not cutting back, they keep producing faster than they are killing. The trade is just making the guess that the seasonal low is in because Oct 1st is the popular timeframe for that to happen------but there are years when it waits until Nov to bottom. It's my opinion that the marketing numbers need to start backing off very soon or Dec hogs will create a sink hole before the trade knows what hit them. The addictive $5 range 56-61 has been carved out today and looking at the numbers on the report-----I had no other choice but to throw some Dec hedges on at 61.00 for my more aggressive hedgers who have given me the choice to "Do What I Need To Do" without getting their OK. The others I need plead, beg, and twist arms to get an OK and then its too late.

At the moment my mind is scrambled for right or wrong but my instincts are prodding me to hedge a percentage of Dec hogs since the $5 range may be in place and a retest or break of the low end is very possible with the current info. Any thoughts will be much appreciated.