10-15-14 came in right in the range projected by the model at -0.63. That puts the CME Index component at 108.78 and falling. Yesterday was the 6th consecutive down day.

It's a long time until the ZZZs go to cash settlement and there are so many variables in the supply/demand factors that the model is not nearly as effective as a trading tool this far in front of cash settlement.

The Z/G spreads have been active today and I have been able to scale in and out of a few. I still have a few short ones in place because I think the spread will go from a -3.90 to a plus something by the time we get to cash settlement on the ZZZs. Before this bizarre year came along the highest the spread had ever been was 3.575 on 12-7-04. This year it touched 7.25 before starting to work lower.

The six-day moving average carcass weight has moved up to 214.04 and it is mostly packer hogs that are getting heavier.
The percentage of packer hogs being killed is down a little at 31.8% and I wonder, why are they holding onto their hogs and finishing them a bit heavier?

Best wishes,

dhm