after this last week, I don't trust anything anymore. Just because the print says the report is today-----doesn't mean we will get it or bigger question, will it be a surprise. The setup is certainly there for a psych trade surprise. I'm flat and will wait for the report to make any choices, since a gap open Friday morning is highly likely and I'm not going to guess which way it will gap. It's just too easy to guess the report is going to be negative-----if its not-----there's a lot of shorts that may get run over by blown stops.

There also seems to be a lot of buying interest for Dec-Feb on the guess for a friendly report. So they will be in a situation of anxiety if the report comes in negative. I would guess that most are probably expecting a bearish report(most logical with current info) so the unexpected would be a neutral or friendly report. The seasonal low can happen at anytime now. Last year the report was bearish but the market traded lower for 3 days and only 1.40 lower to find the bottom but the spread had Dec negative to Oct like it should be. That is my question at the moment-----will Dec go deficit to Oct like it should be or is there a surprise waiting to happen with the unexpected.

I don't want to be hit with the unexpected, so I had my hedgers take profits on their hedges yesterday @ 55.20. There bank account is very fat and not wanting to be greedy, we don't care if we leave a few dollars on the table but we don't want to give any back either. If the report is bearish we will take a gap lower to get short some Dec hogs with the thought that Dec will go back to normal with a discount to Oct. We have not hedged any of our Dec production and don't want to until we see the report. Dec 16 did have a $17 rally off of the Oct 19th low. There is some credibility to the 30 day swing cycle. figure it either way-----low to low-----high to low-----not always perfection, sometimes a bit early, sometimes a bit late and sometimes perfection.