9/21/17 was DOWN -1.29 to 58.43. Yesterday was the 27th consecutive down day for the Component and it has averaged dropping 92.8 cents per day during that time period. That's a brutal hit that producers are taking. It is doubtful that the end of this down move is in sight. The VVVs are trading at a discount of -2.08 to the component. Obviously traders think the Index is still headed lower.

The 6/day moving average carcass weight moved up to 210.95#. That is +1.10# yr/yr. This may be a hint that producers are behind in the shipment of hogs. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 210.22#. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.52#. Perhaps packers are a bit more current in their shipments than the nn-packers. Both packer and non-packer hogs were heavier yesterday but the non-packer hogs were up more. This is the season of the year when hogs will begin to gain more rapidly with cooler weather and fresh corn in the feeders.

The kill this week is coming in quite high and the model projects that hogs are being killed this week just about as fast as they are finishing. But there is still a matter of a day to a day-and-a-half of hogs back-logged in producers barns if the last H&P report was correct. When this back-log comes to market is probably when the "Valley" will be posted for this Hog Cycle. I don't know whether the new plants are in production yet or not and if they are, they are not yet required to report their production to the USDA so it is possible that the back log is now being liquidated and we have no knowledge of it except the 6-day moving average carcass weights may give us a hint if they begin to fall. So far they are not falling.

Still short the VVVs and GGGs and long GGGs.

Best wishes,

dhm