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Re: Dewey, I did plenty------

none of it was what I wanted to do but was forced to do it anyway. The gap lower put me short at the open and also took me out of my longs in the same 15 minute breath. Another pair of south lines hit @ 59.07 left me dealing with a rash of anxiety the rest of the day. I did make deposits on both pair of shorts @ the 58.70 target but it seemed like an eternity getting there. I didn't like being long and I didn't like being short but I had a responsibility to my more aggressive hedgers with the looks of things at the moment. I didn't want to put myself in the potential trap of selling at the low with 58.50 being support for last week. So once again I had no other choice but to throw some sell orders at 59.20 resistance if it wanted to bounce back there.

Now they are short again for 25% of their production and I don't like it at all even though this drop is zeroing in on the 58.25 low from Sept 13th. The emotion and last fake out/wash out is also looking at the 57.35 contract low. I'm telling them to be prepared to make a donation off of these hedges and I'm not willing to allow it to be very much. If/when this gets back above 60.00, they have no business being short. Anyway, I spent most of the day frustrating over why Dec is doing what its doing. There has to be a clue somewhere for that but I can't hit on anything that holds water.

The one bright spot to the day-----was the cattle market doing what I feel the hog market should also be doing. I have a position on for Feb cattle @ my 114.95 buy signal and also have some spec traders long there also. I am not looking at any hedges until we get into the first days of Oct. The cattle market did just what the hog market is doing now, just before it started working higher to the buy signal. No fundamental reason to do it and it still does not have a fundamental reason to be where its at.

The directional move begins with the leading indicator technical move and the fundamental reason shows up when the move is 50-60% complete. If the fundamental reason doesn't show-------back down to the bottom she goes. The first clue is always a triggered buy signal and then failed attempts to negate the buy signal.

How do you calculate or decide where you get a buy signal?? That's a pretty loose term thrown around by many brokers/analysts talking about generic buy or sell signals and give the term a bad name. That will take longer to describe than I have time at the moment. When I have more time, I will try to explain what I use and the Rules of Engagement that go with the use of all technical choice based systems.

Messages In This Thread

Not low enough to Buy or High enough to
Re: Dewey, I did plenty------
Re: Dewey, I did plenty------
Re: Dewey, I did plenty------
Re: Dewey, I'm sure-----