9/19/17 was down -0.76 to 60.53. Traders have gone to work to preserve a little "Gap" and it now stands at -1.53 with the VVVs being discounted to the component. The noon reports show that packers are cutting their bids again today. The model projects that the Purchase Index for today will be down -$0.37 and the component on today's kill will drop between -0.50 and -0.80. It appears that we are still in the chase trying to find the "Valley" for this Hog Cycle. Of course the "Valley" for the Index and the futures may be far different.

The six-day moving average carcass weight steady at 210.64#. That is +1.18# year/year. These numbers may be the first hint that packers are now going to work on the log jam of hogs in producers barns. Maybe that is why cutouts were so weak yesterday - packers were clearing off the pile of pork on the packing house floors so the could catch up a little on the kill. Index hogs were a slight bit lighter at 210.2#.

The Z/G and K/M calendar spreads have really been active today and I have made a bunch of trips to the bank. The free board on my boat has increased a good bit. The boat is still loaded but probably not to the point that it is in danger of being swamped. In fact I have orders working to add plenty more.

Still short the VVVs and ZZZs. Those ZZZs are doing me NO GOOD.

Best wishes,

dhm