9/18/17 was down -0.94 to 61.29. The VVVs are trading discount to the component by a paltry 0.72. For all practical purposes we can say that the "Gap" is closed but there are still 18 more days of data to come in before we get to cash settlement and there will be plenty of up/downs in the VVVs and ZZZs as traders try to project where hogs are headed. For 24 consecutive days they have been crashing downward at the average rate 92.5 cents per day. That is a serious hit that un-hedged producers are taking. I think this hasbeen a difficult hedging environment. ITZ may think differently but he has a lot more hedging experience than I.

The six-day moving average carcass weights drifted a little lower this morning to 210.62#. Perhaps packers have now worked through the Labor Day holiday hogs. Hogs are still +1.26# over hogs on this day last year. It may be that packers are now wanting heavier. My bias, though, is that producers have fallen behind in their shipments. Both packer and non-packer hogs were about -1/3# lighter.

A couple of times each day I share with you the numbers I pick up from the USDA's reports and share with you my feelings about what they mean. I seem to be much better at crunching the number and talking about them than trading them. On the bounce this morning I sold a trio of VVVs and have now covered them and put the money in the bank. Additionally I have been hustling back and forth from the bank depositing profits from five calendar spread trades that I was able to get off my boat. I'm not quite as concerned that my boait is going to be swamped as I was but it is still riding mighty low in the water but I now have room to add a few back on.

Best wishes,

dhm