quite confident in the logic I have built into my Hog Pricing Model and the formula I have put into it. I trust the daily reports published by the U.S.D.A. as being correct. My confidence in the quarterly H&P report is at a lower level.

If it is nearly correct, though, hogs are being backed up. You mentioned, " . . . that packers are buying all the hogs they want are lower and lower prices."

The model is suggesting that packers are NOT buying ALL the hogs that are being finished. It estimates there were almost 19K more head finished last week than were kill bringing the total back-log to almost 340K. Today those hogs got a pound or two heavier. If they are in fact out there like the H&P report suggests, they WILL come to market. The questions are:

When??

and -

At what price??

And those two questions interfere with my sleep!!

Best wishes,

dhm