at the moment the FOG is really thick for hog market direction. Working my fishing lines is the only way I can keep my anxiety and sanity under control. Sucker fish is all I've been catching for what seems like an eternity. The heavy feeding of sucker fish seems to set the trap for the next big move that comes as a surprise and I sure don't want to be on the wrong side. I'm trying to make sure I don't get lazy with my monitoring my stops. Picked up a pair of shorts @ 94.10 but the shadows have me in a mindset of small profits are better than a loss so I was more than satisfied with the 50 cent deposits.
My conversations with producers and other traders this week gives me the feeling, the mindset is expecting and looking for a $5-$10 drop. As I look at the structure of this 3 weeks of sideways movement it would take a breach of 91.60 to negate the 60 min pattern of higher highs and higher lows. A slight uptrend is in place that is somewhat disguised and waiting to play its hand for whichever direction it chooses. The easy, logical, and in the BOX choice is to acquire short positions in the 95-97 area. It is so tempting based on the high percentage historical and seasonal tendencies of Dec hogs. I've been short as well as others, I for whatever reason have been banking profits as well as taking losses but others are holding. A person can't help but over think a prolonged sideways trade but I continue to see the warning signs of A TRAP and my hallucination for 2 weeks has BEAR in front of TRAP. The 100 day moving av, now at 95.62 has been keeping a lid on daily closes. If I see a daily close above that moving av I have no other choice but read it as a buy signal and a weekly close above it would be confirmation enough for me. Not officially confirmed until a weekly close above 97.30.
The fishing pond waters have a setup which in my mind according to my own fishing experiences for being lucky enough to catch the few BIG ONES now and then, have the parameters set for the BIG ONES waiting just north of 97.30 and confirmed as a BIG ONE on a daily close above 97.30. There are also BIG ONES on the south end but will not give a bite until 92.40 and you won't be able to set your hook confirming a BIG ONE until a daily close below 91.60.
This year has mirrored 2004 in most of the commodities(maybe something to be said for the 10 year cycle) and Dec hogs had a $13 rally after it took over as front month. Just food for thought "don't let yourself get caught on the wrong side of the pond" I tell myself that every morning I pull out the fishing gear and to whom ever else I talk to.