I keep saying that I think producers are getting behind in their shipments. This notion has been based primarily on two facts:

1. The six-day moving average Carcass weights have been climbed from 206.80# on 8/8/17 to 210.27# on 9/7/17 and

2. The six-day moving average carcass weights are +1.71# heavier than they were one year ago. On 8/8/17 they were -0.66# lighter.

This afternoon I decided to see how the kill since 6/1/17 stacks up against the projected kill from the last hogs and pigs report.

Using the numbers in the last H&P report, the model projects that the kill since 6/1/17 should have been something like 33.3 million head. The reported kill was 32.9 for a short fall of something like 340K.

This gives me three-data points suggesting that producers have fallen behind in their shipments by something like a day to a day and a half.

Is that enough to make much difference?

Probability and we have to keep in mind that those heavy hogs are still gaining weight. Shortly fresh picked corn is going to begin flowing and when it does, the weather will be cooler, hogs appetites will be better and they will gain faster.

I'm still clinging to three of the five VVVs I sold Friday.

Best wishes,

dhm