final Purchase Index will be late. From the afternoon reports the model projected that the Purchase Index will drop -$0.49 and the component on Friday's kill will be down between -0.65 and -0.95. The downtrend is still alive and well. Cut outs showed a little life on Friday so we may be about to see the down trend slow a little. The VVVs settled discount to the component by -10.41. The model calculates that the component will need to drop an average of -38 cents per day to close the "Gap". Over the last 13-days it has dropped an average of 89.5 cents per day. Maybe a good bit of the aggressive price cutting by the packers has already taken place. I just don't have a feel for what the VVVs are going to do so I am just mildly short because that is the way we are trending. It appears to me that tThis is a very difficult market for hedgers.

The firmness in the carcass weights makes me think that producers are a bit behind in their shipments and that is a bit bothersome and has me thinking lower still.

Best wishes,

dhm