10/9/14 was down -$0.56 and the model projects that the component on the 10-9-14 kill will fall in the range of -0.05 and -0.25. packers still have a fair-sized inventory of more expensive hogs purchased that could cushion the amount of the decline, depending on the mix of purchased hogs they chose to kill yesterday.

The kill is now running ahead of projections from the H&P report. From the report, I would anticipate the kill will be down between 4.5% and 5.5% but it is only down 1.63%. With carcass weights running heavier than one-year ago, pork production this week will likely exceed the same week last year. The low beef production will likely cause consumers to shift to less expensive pork and this may help pork demand.

I was inclined to buy the VVVs this morning, but when I saw that the final Purchase Index was down for the second consecutive day, I backed-off that idea. I have a few spreads and that's all. I was able to take profits on one long K/M spread this morning and have plenty more to work with.

Best wishes,

dhm