plants, Spike?

In my mind, it is the crumbling cutouts thatare driving packers' bids lower and perhaps their appetite for hogs. So far their margins are just fine but it is because they are keeping up with the declining pork prices with lowering their bid prices. If there is an increase in supply in a few weeks which is highly likely, I wonder where the bottom will be for the cash settlement index for the VVVs. Today traders think it will be Index 62.875.

On average over the past six-days packers have driven the component down by an average of 60.5 cents per day. If that rate continues, the cash settlement index will dip to 58.85. The model says today's dip will be more than that. I surely don't know where we are headed.

But I will keep trying to guess with the rest of the traders, producers and end-users.

Best wishes,

dhm