really don't know much about trading hog spreads but I am trying to learn.

It seems to me that there must be a lot of randomness in the pricing of spreads For instance, yesterday I bought some N/Q spreads. Some of the sows that will produce hogs coming to market then have not even been bred yet so the supply is a great big unknown. And so is demand.

The average price of the spread over the past six-year with about 8-months to expiration has been 0.80. The highest the spread went was 12.7 and the lowest was -8.3. That's a huge range so there is potentially a lot of risk. Most of those big move come in the last 60-days. Historically between now and the middle of May the 6-year range has been -1.2 to +3.4. That's a nice range to patiently scale in and out of the market. If the spread dips a little more, I will buy again if it rallies some, I will start scaling out. After the dip it made yesterday, I thought I might get one to the bank today, but so far it is not happening.

Thanks for being a patron of the forum, Tim. Please feel free to post more often.

Best wishes,

dhm