8/18/17 was down -0.99 to 81.96. The VVVs are now trading discount to the component by -16.87. The model calculates that the component will need to drop an average of 0.45 per day to close that "Gap". The average decline for the past five days has been -0.525. If that rate of decline continues, it will drop the index to the 62 level.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 207.72#. That is +0.49# yr/yr. Both packer and non-packer hogs were heavier. Packer hogs are essentially the same weight as non-packer hogs. Index hogs are at 207.67#. During this hog weather season, carcass weights getting heavier is NOT the norm. Producers may be getting behind in their shipments. If they are, I suspect it is because packers are slowing the chain speed down a bit. NOT A GOOD THING TO HAPPEN THIS TIME OF THE YEAR!!

Again I will say, "I would hate to be trying to hedge in this market!"

Best wishes,

dhm