the 10/8/14 kill was DOWN -O.O2 TO 110.59. i continue to be impressed with the effectiveness with which the model project the change in the CME Index component. The VVVs are now discounted to the component by 0.84. With four more days of data to come in, the Index can easily shed that much to get us to cash settlement. On the other hand, the VVVs could easily tack on that much. Generally I do some of my best trading in the last ten-days or so of the front month futures. It isn't happening this month. The uncertainty has me afraid to dip my toe into the water very far.

The six-day moving average carcass weight move up to 213.54# and it was mostly packer hogs that were heavier. The percentage of packer hogs killed yesterday was the lowest we have seen for a couple of weeks. I continue to suspect packers suffered greater PED v losses than non-packers although the evidence is pretty scanty.

This morning I was able to bank a little profit on some short M/N spreads that have been hanging around for a while.

Best wishes,

dhm