10/8/14 was down $0.44. The model projects that the CME Index component on the 10-8-14 kill will fall in the range of down -0.10 to +0.20. So far this week the kill is running below the same week last year by -1.39%. When the heavier carcasses are factored into the equation, total pork production appears to be headed higher than the same week last year.

The number of hogs packers purchased yesterday was quite weak. It is unclear whether this represents a shortage of hogs, packers not needing hogs so they bid lower or whether producer balked at the lower packer bids. If producers were balking at the lower prices, packers will win the "Tug-O-War" because producers will shortly have to move the hogs held back.

The surge in the VVVs has closed the gap until they are merely discounted to the by 0.86. With only four days to expiry and the Purchase Index now pointing down, the VVVs will have a tendency to follow the Index and the Index may be turning down a little.

I have taken profits on all VVVs and just went short at 109.70. So far so good but I will be ready to jump out on a very short notice.

Best wishes,

dhm