8/1/17 was down a modest -0.18 to 87.26. There are 10-data days to come in and the model shows that it will take and average daily drop of 0.66 to close that "Gap" from Tuesday's settle.. I keep hanging onto too many long QQQs because that "Gap" seems to be excessive compared to the speed at which packers are lowering their bids. In the last 9-days the average drop in the component has been 0.50.

It looks like traders have come to their senses today and went to work on the "Gap".

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady today at 206.75#. That's -1.05# yr/yr. Packer hogs are -0.63# under the non-packer hogs. Index hogs are at 206.75#.

At this point in time there seems to be an appropriate seasonal balance between supply and demand. With packers' margins favorable, they are not under a lot of pressure to cut their bids. If cutouts tumble, we are in a whole new ball game.

Today I took out two long QQQs. If they dip, I will add them back.

Best wishes,

dhm