8/1/17 was down -0.69 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.45 and -0.75. The QQQs settled discount to the component by -7.64 yesterday. The model shows that the component will need to drop by -0.77 /day to close that gap. The average drop over the past eight days has been -0.54.

Yesterday packers purchased 104.1% of the moving average daily purchases of Index hogs. Producers have the hogs and they are willing sellers and at the same time demand seems to be softening. Hogs are headed lower. That is not the question. How low and how fast is the question?

I continue to think the QQQs are priced too low and they keep going lower. At least I'm glad that I sold a bunch 83 calls to cushion the fall.

Best wishes,

dhm