7/27/17 was down -0.54 to 89.13. The QQQs are settling discount to the component by -6.89. Over the past six-days the component has dropped and average of -0.51 per day. If that same trajectory continues for the remaining 13-days that cash settlement index for the QQQs will be 82.73. The "Gap" closing dance is alive alive well with traders jumping at shadows as they try to guess where we are headed,,

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 206.85. That is -1.06# year / year. Packer hogs continue to be a bit lighter by -1.61#. Hog prices almost always head lower in the fall and this year the pattern seems to be in place for a fall sell-off. Packers seem to have rushed some of their hogs to market in anticipation of the price decline. The weight of index hogs is a bit heavier at 206.6#. Maybe they are not quite as current in their shipments as the packers are.

I'm still long some QQQs and short a few VVVs because my bias is thata the "Gap" is too wide. Often when I get a directional bias, I'm wrong but this year the model has helped me keep on the right side of hogs. I think the "Gap" is too wide now and the QQQs will move up bit. I keep reducing the number of QQQs a bit so my bias is not very strong.

Best wishes,

dhm