up $0.47 and the model projects that the component on the 6/26/14 kill will be up between 0.75 and 1.05.

Several of the markets actually showed a decline in the price packers were paying. Historically there is a strong tendency for the CME Index to remain relatively flat following the surge leading up to the Independence Day Holiday. The decline in the cutouts yesterday may be our first hint that demand will not remain quite as strong over the next couple of weeks.

Packers did not get a very good purchase yesterday at 75.3% of the moving average daily purchases. The is the lowest I find in my records since 12/24/13. I'm not sure why the number purchased was low. If it was because producers were balking at packers' bids, packers will win and prices will move lower.

If it was because packers didn't want more pork to peddle with cutout prices heading lower, it may signal some weakness in demand which could also limit packers' bids.

If it is an indication that producers just don't have the hogs, packers will be back bidding higher in a day or two.

Best wishes,

dhm