7/18/17 was down -0.38 to 92.21. It never ceases to amazed me at how effective the model is in projecting the component change a few hours ahead of the USDA'S numbers. It is only a few hours but it sure helps me get a directional bias before the market opens. It looks like the "Gap" can erode away when packers work on it from one side and trades get busy on the other side. The QQQs are tinkering with giving me that limit up move that I thought was possible. Very often when the second month becomes front month with a big "Gap" there will be a limit move to close the "Gap". With the "Gap" being so very wide this time, I thought limit was surely possible.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 207.21#. That is -1.85# year over year. I think producjers are very current in their shipments. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by 1.50# so packers seem to be even more current. The percentage of packer hogs in the mix continues to be higher than usual. Today packer hogs were almost 1/2# lighter. Non-packer hogs were also lighter but not quite as much. Index hogs are holding up better at 207.70# but that was down a little also.

When the dust settled for the NNNs going to cash settlement, I was left with 15 short QQQ on my boat. I felt like I was a miniature "Dewey" with that many shorts on my hands. I have chosen to dump some of them this morning, but I still have most of them. I am NOT planning on buying more until I get rid of a few more.

Best wishes,

dhm