10/6/14 was up +$0.46 and the model projects that the CME Index component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.15 and +0.45. This strong hog market during that time of the year when prices drop has some traders confused and jumpy and I am one of confused and jumpy ones.

The obvious explanation is that the PED virus has wiped out a bunch of piglets and nobody knows just how bad the losses were. This is compounded by the low cattle kill numbers and the uncertainty about how beef demand will hold up in the face of rising beef prices. At this point in time it appears that there may be some consumer shifting to less expensive pork which may be bolstering pork prices.

Packers were able to get a solid purchase of hogs yesterday with their higher bids. They purchased 104.3% of the moving average daily purchases. They did a bit better on Index hogs - they got 108.1% of the moving average daily purchases of Index hogs.

It appears that if producers get a little extra money, they are willing sellers.

I was able to get long a VVVs again yesterday and today I'm happy that I did. I would like to have a few more and will if we get a nice dip.

Best wishes,

dhm