7/5/17 was down -$0.39 and the model projects that the component on the 7/3/17 kill will be nearly unchanged with a change something in the range of +0.15 to -0.15. Packers did not purchase very many hogs Monday and that is exactly what one would expect on the day before a holiday. The NNNs settled discount to the component by -0.98. With 10-days of data to come in to get us to cash settlement, the model projects that the component will need to ease by an average of -0.456 to close the "Gap". The component on Friday's kill was down and now it appears that the component on MOnday's kill may be down so packers may close the "Gap" by bidding lower.

On the other hand, cutouts were firm Monday so packer' margins are in good shape. If that continue packers may chose to compete with each other to see who gets to kill the hogs. That seems to be the most likely scenario but it all hinges on the cutouts remaining firm.

I'm still mildly long the NNNs and am clinging to that lonely QQQ.

Best wishes,

dhm