6/23/17 was up $0.17 and the model projects that the component on Friday's kill will be up between +0.40 and +0.70. The NNNs settled discount to the component by -5.15. One year ago the NNNs were premium to the component by +0.17. Last year the NNNs tumbled from 84.05 on this date to 79.90 at cash settlement, a drop of -4.15. Obviously traders think the tumble this year will be more severe than it was last year.

But this year is far, far different from last year.

Especially from the demand side. USDA reported cutouts at 101.15 Friday. One year ago they were at 87.20. That represents firm demand.

I don't know where we are headed but where ever it is, I don't think it is cold there so I am leaving my bear skin coat in the closet.

Best wishes,

dhm