The supply demand dynamics are very different this year:

Last year the average carcass weight was 209.97#. This year it is 207.65# down -2.32#. This suggests producers are more current in their shipments.
Last year cutouts were 87.70. This year they are 98.33, up 11.82. This suggests stronger demand.

The average weekly kill over the past five weeks has been 2057K. Last year it was 2002K a year over year increase of 2.75%. From the last H&P report one would expect +4.0%. There do not appear to be as many hogs as the market had expected; if they have been pulled forward a bit, supply could shrink a little. Last year the kill for the five weeks forward from this date increased to 2,050K per week a jump of 2.4%. I don't know what it will do this year but lighter carcass weights do not suggest an abundance of hogs in producers' barns.

last year the NNNs were trading premium to the Index by +0.33. This year they are discount by -5.30. That is a very big swing year/year. If traders are trading the historical pattern from last year, they could be making a mistake. Or maybe not.

Long Bear said, "In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!"

Best wishes,

dhm