10/2/14 was up $0.04 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 10/2/14 kill will creep up by something like +0.05 to +0.35. That will keep the up-trend intact but just barely.

Yesterday packers purchased 83.8% of the moving average daily purchases. They were able to purchase 92.6% of the moving daily average on Index hog purchases. This may indicate that the independent producers are more willing sellers.

Packers' margins seem to be quite good with the cut outs over the packers national cost of carcasses by $14.49. Cut outs are $12.67/cwt over the index. Either way it is a nice margin for packers but they will try to bid hogs down to widen their margins.

My bias is that the index will hold fairly firm until the VVVs go to cash settlement but I'm stopped out of the long VVVs right now. It will take a dip to get me back in today.

Best wishes,

dhm