warning signs and the big one for me-----is when I start thinking I have the market figured out. That usually turns into a Dangerous thought process. With the index shooting higher, upside seems to have very good prospects------but that is also a warning sign since price always looks best at the tops and worst at the bottoms. So this setback is justified as we wait for the report to either stimulate another launch or add fuel to the downside.

The market remembers what happened last year as July took over as front month. Setting $5 higher than yesterdays high, July went into an immediate $8 free fall and Aug turned it into a $20 freefall. It came as a surprise for most because the psych traps had been set by building a bullish bias off of confusion of June going all the way to 88.00. Now my Hallucinations are suggesting a new psych trap may be laying the ground work to turn everyone bearish with this failure of July keeping pace with the index. The bait is last years selloff, fresh in everyone's mind, may force the market low enough while playing the Load and Unload Shuffle with lots of confusion(after the bulls are becoming disappointed) to set the trap. My big Hallucination now is to be on Guard for the August southbound train to load up and then spring the trap with a surprise $10+ rally. It may or may not happen but the August contract is due for one of its famous Launch's it manages to do every 3-4 years. Another way this could play out, is for Oct to get a strong counter seasonal Super-Ball Rally as it becomes front month.

The big problem for me is that I can't trust my Hallucinations or my convicted bias. Confusion sets the range bound traps that will eventually set direction. So that leaves me with making the best of a confusing situation-------keep the Fishing Gear ready and wait for the Dinner Bells to Ring.