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I'm no prophet relative to what the hogs - - - -

will do but I tend to profit a little from them. I thought today looked like your "Cup-of-Tea", ITZ. Glad to hear you had your fishing gear ready and snagged a few. More and more I tend to rely on the calendar spreads. They seem to follow a random walk pattern that fits into my temperament. Today I made a trip to the bank with profits from two short J/K spreads. Hogs coming to market then are mostly not even in the sows bellies yet and we won't learn much about them from this H&P report.

It seems to me that there are four different trading styles for trading hogs:

1. Fundamental which I use my Hog Pricing Model as a tool on the front month during the last three to four weeks.

2. Technical which I believe covers your daily fishing program and my trend line reversal approach.

3. Systematic which covers my calendar spread system. In this system, I utilize historical patterns and then scale in and out as the market wonders around. This some times takes a lot of patience and often needs to be tempered with a few "TUMS''.

4. Discretionary aka S.W.A.G. I suppose there is some of this in almost every trade.

Tomorrow is a new day and I'm cautiously optimistic that my fundamental view that hogs have been pulled forward by the incredible demand that has surfaced this spring will be validated. Packers' favorable margins are creating in them a strong appetite for hogs. I'm counting on packers throwing more money at hogs as the packers jockey to see who gets to kill the hogs.

The kill this week is really coming in weak compared to what the H&P report implied. The noon and afternoon reports were pointing to very strong Purchase Index numbers and this usually translates into strong CME index numbers.

The NNNs may or may not follow these up trends because traders may be thinking of a post-holiday-demand-slump. Historically it tends to happen. I'm counting on the fundamentals prevailing over the historicals.

Best wishes,

dhm

Messages In This Thread

The final Purchase Index for - - -
Re: Great fishing today DH-----
I'm no prophet relative to what the hogs - - - -