was up +0.13 tl 76.52. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by 4.53. The model calculates that the component will need to gain an average of +0.40 from now until cash settlement to close that "Gap". Leading up to the expiration of the KKKs, during the same time period the average daily change in the component was +0.52. This seems to indicate that packers do make moves in the index of that magnitude. Historically the move up of the index in from of Independence Day tends to be stronger than the move up in front of Memorial Day but there is a strong tendency for weakness to surface after retailers fill their cases for the Memorial Day surge and we didn't get that this year. This may dampen the Independence day demand surge.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was slightly weaker this morning at 210.73# and it is -1.75# year over year. It continues to appear to me that hogs have been pulled forward by about 400K to 450K. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 210.63#. Packer hogs were lighter than non-packer hogs by -.38#. Packers have been liquidating their heavy hogs at a rapid clip in front of the Memorial DAy Holiday. I think it was NEEDs driven.

I may be courting disaster, but I added a couple more long MMMs today.

Best wishes,

dhm