5/18/17 was up +0.54 to 75.83. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +3.00. That is not much of a "Gap" if demand holds and we get a "Usual" seasonal dip in the kill.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 210.66#. That is -2.65# year/year. Packer hogs are now lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.50#. It continues to look like packers have liquidated their heavy hogs and I am suspecting it is because they were having difficulty finding non-packer hogs to meet their committed pork sales. Both packer and non-packer hogs were lighter yesterday but packer hogs dipped lower in weight than the non-packer hogs. Index hogs were steady at 210.74#.

So far the weather has not been hot enough to stifle the growth rate of hogs. This leaves me with the feeling that the decline in the carcass weights indicates that hogs are being pulled forward. Since 4/30/17 the kill this year has been +3.3% greater than the same period last year. From the H&P report I was expecting it to be +5.25% to +5.50%. If the lighter carcass weights indicate some pulling forward of hogs then the actual slaughter during this period may be as much as 3% less than suggested by the last H&P report. Pork production would be off even more because the carcass weight is down by more than 1.0%.

And so I ask, "Where have all the piggies gone??"

Maybe they were never there.

These numbers are forcing me to grit my teeth and hold onto the long MMMs during the weakness we are seeing this morning and I will go into the weekend riding a few long MMM pigs in spite of the fact that I would prefer to be flat for the weekend.

Best wishes,

dhm

"IN THE HOG MARKET YOU CAN ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!"