5/17/17 was up +0.74 to 75.28. The premium of MMMs over the index component has now closed to 3.59.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight has now eased to 210.72# and it is the collapse in the weight of packer hogs that caused the drop. Packer hogs were down -1.15#. That is a very large drop that is for a 6-day moving average weight. Packer hogs are now lighter than non-packer hogs by 0.14#. That is not much difference but it does represent a lot of liquidation of heavy hogs by packers. -

What does this mean?

It may mean that packers are having trouble finding hogs so they are emptying their barns to meet pork sales they have already made or
It could mean that packers are anticipating a drop in demand after the holidays so they want to market their hogs before the price takes a dip.

My guess it is because packers need the pork to meet demand thus it is a bullish signal.

"In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!" So we may see the MMMs sell-off in the face of what I perceive to be a bullish fundamental sigh.

I'm long a few MMMs and will try to hang on even if they do dip.

Best wishes,

dhm