Just a few quick comments.
IMHO the USDA is trying to talk the price of pork down.

Beef is super strong, and will stay that way for years.
1 cow, and 1 calf per year is gonna take time.
Holding back a heifer to breed takes courage.

Chicken numbers have the best chance of building meat supply.
quick turnover, cheaper feed, and low interest rates,
along with this Russian embargo could really pump up chicken supply,
IF the infrastructure permits.

Pork is in a very interesting spot.
Russian issue, US dollar strength, and operating loans are definite negatives.
Bankers are still a little gunshy aboooout lending money to hog producers.
[I'm not sure why, as the ones left in this business have proven their stamina and commitment.]
Lower feed costs, tight supply, strong demand from completive issues just mentioned,
and this lingering PED challenge bode for continued strong margins
Demand for wieners here in Ontario is strong. balance sheets are improving weekly,
and firm futures prices are taking some uncertainty out of the business going forward.
Lenders, genetic and feed companies are being repaid.
And don't forget that a lot of very good producers were squeezed out of business.

PED
I was at a PED/PRRS meeting a few weeks ago.
In Ontario we did have about 63 farms hit with PED last winter.
most have recovered and are either negative, or close to it.
While the virus started with a creep feed supply issue, from 2 suppliers out of one mill,
the mechanical spread was well handled. there were some, but mostly the biosecurity worked excellent.
I suspect that we will see some breaks again this winter, but if everyone does their job, this won't turn into an outbreak.
PRRS is present, but many are working on elimination on their farms,
and spread is almost non-existent. A gold star for everyone involved.

In the US, things are different. Reports of 40-75% of farms were hit.
many have not eliminated the problem yet.
Vaccine hasn't been as effective as hoped, and it only works as a preventative.
Mixed result in farms that went positive, and vaccinated to try to prevent reoccurrence.
The US is still reporting 50 new cases per week.
We are getting close to the timeframe where cases started increasing last year.
Last year there were aboooout 30 cases per week being reported.
Only 40% of positive farms were back at full production 15 weeks after going positive.

bottom line; there is a very good chance that PED in the US could hit worse this winter than last.
PRRS is still challenging farms, and biosecurity is still the culprit in the spread of both viruses.

Later
Ed ooooout