4/17/19 was down -0.23 to 61.99 and that is the other half of the cash settlement index for the JJJs putting the cash settlement index at 62.12. I carried a handful of ishort JJJs into cash settlement. Obviously I would have been a little better of to have covered the at the close but in this business when you make a decision you have to live with it and take what the market dishes out. I can't remember a time when the Hog Pricing Model has been as precise of a trading tool as it was during this expiration cycle. Unfortunately I had sold some naked T-Bond calls and they, along with some long Q/V calendar spreads, gobbled up all the gains and then some.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 213.49#. That is only -0.27# yr/yr. I was expecting the low kill week end kill to cause the carcass weight to move up. This may be suggesting that the hog numbers are beginning to contract or that producers are staying very current in their shipments. Both packer and non-packer hogs were lighter weight on Monday's kill. Packer hogs are now +1.7# heavier than non-packer hogs. Index hogs are getting a bit heavier and they are now 213.95#. It could be that packers slowed down buying index hogs in order to kill a few more of their own hogs and get more current in their shipments.

I'm plenty happy to see T-Bonds ease up on their climb to the moon this morning.

Best wishes,

dhm