4/13/17 was down -0.51 to 62.94. The JJJs are now discount to the component by just 0.49. The model is projecting the cash settlement index will be 62.24 with a range of 61.84 to 62.64. It looks like I am going to have to go to cash settlement with some short JJJs. That will not be without some risk. Packers may have the ability to select which batch of purchased hogs they ran through their plants on Friday and which ones with will run through today giving them an advantage if they are going to cash settlement with some JJJJs. I'm willing to match wits with them in projecting where the cash settlement will be. Generally I don't get my ears pinned back by the cash settlement.

If the JJJs show any strength today, I will be selling some more to take to cash settlement. I probably won't gain much but shouldn't lose either and it will give me something to do.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 213.52#. That is -0.69# year over year. It appears that producers are staying quite current in their shipments and packers have become much more current. 1.74# heavier than non-packer hogs. At one point they were more than four pounds heavier.

I appreciate the folks at the USDA working on Friday and getting the data out even though it was a holiday.

Best wishes,

dhm