4/11/17was down -$0.69 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.35 and -0.65. With their lower bids, packers were able to purchase 90.1% of the moving average daily purchases - more or less an average purchase for a Tuesday.

It isn't often that most of the dynamics of the market come together to enable the model to give guidance as strong as it has been able to do for the JJJs. Sometimes I tell you that the model is not able to make a cash settlement index projection. This time the H&P report projected higher kill numbers, the cutouts went into decline, the actual kill followed through with numbers mildly higher than projected from the H&P report and packers began dropping their bid prices and liquidating their inventory of heavy hogs.

This enabled the model to make projections that have kept me short the JJJs for quite a while.

Best wishes,

dhm